A report by Cameroon’s Ministry of Finance warns that CEMAC’s foreign exchange reserves could come under increased pressure in 2026, as the region faces a fragile economic environment shaped by external shocks.
According to the document, reserves have already declined in recent months, though not enough to threaten external stability. As of late October 2025, they stood at CFA6,203 billion, down CFA146 billion year-on-year and CFA1,133 billion compared with December 2024. This drop reflects cumulative net outflows of around CFA1,300 billion, driven by persistent trade deficits, lower oil prices, and higher external debt payments.
The ministry expects additional strain in 2026, as countries in the region face a series of major external debt repayments. “These obligations are likely to lead to significant outflows from foreign exchange reserves during the year,” the report states, adding that such payments will further tighten liquidity across the region.
Oil prices may offer limited relief
The report points to one potential factor that could ease the pressure: rising global oil prices. Tensions involving Iran have pushed prices higher, which could support export revenues for the region. As a net exporter of oil and gas, CEMAC relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports as its main source of foreign currency.
However, the ministry cautions that logistical risks tied to geopolitical tensions could disrupt exports or increase costs. Transport and insurance challenges could offset some of the expected gains from higher oil prices.
In effect, the external shock could have mixed consequences for the region—supporting foreign exchange inflows through oil exports while at the same time draining reserves through rising debt service obligations.
Risk of renewed inflation pressures
Beyond external balances, the report also highlights risks to domestic price stability. Disruptions in supply chains, rising crude oil prices, and higher transport and insurance costs are expected to push fuel prices higher.
CEMAC countries, which rely heavily on imported fuel, could see these increases spread across the broader economy. This comes after recent progress in reducing inflation, supported by policies from the Bank of Central African States (BEAC).
Inflation fell from 5.6% in 2022 and 2023 to 4.1% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. It is projected at 2.7% in 2026. However, the ministry warns that rising fuel prices could slow this downward trend, as higher transport costs ripple through the economy.
Overall, the report underscores the region’s vulnerability to external shocks. With heavy debt obligations ahead and uncertain support from oil markets, CEMAC enters 2026 facing mounting pressure on its macroeconomic stability.
Amina Malloum