Cameroon's plan to run a budget deficit equivalent to 2.7% of GDP in 2027 threatens its chances of securing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), potentially putting CFA300 billion in expected budget support at risk. In a circular signed on October 12, 2026, to guide preparation of the 2027 state budget, President Paul Biya instructed the government to base its spending plans on a budget deficit, including grants, of 2.7% of GDP.
That target exceeds the 1.5% ceiling the IMF has reportedly required each member of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) to observe in 2027 as a condition for new economic and financial programs.
According to an authoritative source interviewed in Yaoundé on September 28, 2026, on the sidelines of the third regular session of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), the requirement applies collectively to the region. The source said that if even one CEMAC country presents a 2027 budget with a deficit above 1.5% of GDP, the IMF will not conclude any new economic and financial programs in the subregion.
Cameroon Faces Particular Scrutiny
Although the 1.5% deficit requirement applies to all six CEMAC countries, failure by any single member to comply would have particularly serious consequences for Cameroon, Congo and Gabon, which no longer have active IMF programs. Congo completed its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program in March 2025. Gabon's previous three-year agreement, approved in July 2021, expired in 2024. In Cameroon, the final reviews under its ECF and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements were approved in July 2025.
For Cameroon, a new IMF agreement is particularly important because the government has already factored expected budget support into its medium-term financing plans.
In its Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document for 2027–2029, the Ministry of Finance states that financing the budgets for those three years depends on budget support expected from a new economic and financial program with the IMF. The document also identifies failure to reach an agreement with the Fund as one of the risks to the sustainability of public finances over the medium term.
CFA300 Billion in Budget Support Expected in 2027
The financial stakes are substantial. Cameroon has included CFA300 billion in budget support in its 2027 financing projections, based on the assumption that a new IMF program will be concluded. That amount represents approximately 9.5% of the government's total projected financing needs of CFA3,161.5 billion for 2027.
Without an IMF agreement, Cameroon would lose access to the CFA300 billion in anticipated budget support under that assumption. The government would then need to find alternative sources of borrowing to cover the shortfall and maintain a degree of budgetary balance. The prospect of missing the 1.5% deficit requirement therefore raises concerns about how the government would finance its spending plans if negotiations with the IMF fail.
The fiscal constraint comes at a time when public finances across CEMAC have deteriorated. According to the World Bank's CEMAC Economic Barometer, published in August 2026, lower oil revenues and persistent spending pressures contributed to a worsening regional fiscal position in 2025. The World Bank estimates that CEMAC's average budget deficit increased from 1.6% of GDP in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025. This deterioration has made the prospect of meeting the 2027 deficit requirement more challenging for member governments.
The Need for Realistic Budgets
BEAC presents an even higher estimate based on its own statistical methodology. The regional central bank puts CEMAC's public deficit at 4.5% of GDP in 2025 and forecasts a decline to 3.3% in 2026. However, the BEAC and World Bank figures are not directly comparable because they may use different statistical coverage and calculation methods.
Reducing a regional deficit of this magnitude to the 1.5% threshold in 2027 would require substantial fiscal adjustments across CEMAC. The source interviewed in Yaoundé believes the target is achievable if governments adopt more realistic spending plans.
According to the source, governments should avoid drafting budgets that depend on large amounts of financing at a time when funding is becoming increasingly scarce. Instead, they should align spending with revenues they can reasonably expect to collect.
In Cameroon, estimates of the 2026 budget deficit also vary depending on the institution and methodology used. The IMF puts the overall deficit at 1.7% of GDP while maintaining that the country remains within CEMAC's reference fiscal criterion. However, the government's plan to increase the deficit to 2.7% of GDP in 2027 raises questions about its ability to meet the conditions reportedly required for a new IMF agreement.
With CFA300 billion in expected budget support already included in next year's financing projections, the gap between Cameroon's proposed deficit and the 1.5% requirement could become a major obstacle in negotiations with the Fund.
Brice R. Mbodiam